The newest issue of Market Intelligence newsletter is now
live. It makes it clear that great uncertainty remains because of the tariff situation. It also makes the point that the distortions that tariff policies are causing are so extensive that no one can really escape unaffected.
Another topic that features prominently is the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). The newsletter points to threats that third countries will raise a case at the World Trade Organisation against the European Union over EUDR. It says this threat is serious and suggests it ought, all things being equal, to lead to EUDR, once again, being postponed or even cancelled.
But it says there are two reasons why postponement and cancellation are unlikely to happen. The first, Market Intelligence says, is that the European Commission, by announcing an initial postponement of EUDR at the end of 2024, has already lost face over this regulation and will not want to lose face again.
Secondly, it says there are large corporations that are in a position to comply with EUDR, because they have the money and human resources to carry out the work required. These companies have come to see this as a competitive advantage because they know many others will not be able to match them. They have every interest in capitalising on this advantage and will not want the work they have already done on EUDR to be in vain.
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